Monday, August 26, 2013

Finding The Exact Location Of An Alleged Chemical Munition, And What It Could Mean

Brown Moses Blog

"After the alleged chemical attack in Damascus last week a number of videos and photographs were posted online showing the munition opposition activists linked to the attack.  One of the munitions, marked 197, was particularly well documented.



From these videos it's possible to extract some useful information.  One blogger used photographs of the munition, and the shadows it cast at different points of the day, to estimate it had been fired from the north of it's final location.  From the photograph and video imagery I believe it was even possible to find the exact location of the munition using satellite maps, so I invited my followers on Twitter to help with the Storyful Open Newsroom investigation of the site, with Twiiter user @koincheking sent me his best guess of the location, between Zamalka and Ein Tarma.

Now I had the task of confirming the exact location.  Using photos and videos of the munition I found, I began to compare images of the location to what could be seen in the map.  The quality of the satellite imagery wasn't too great, but it did give an idea of the location and size of various structures, and I managed to find 5 images from the videos and photos that I matched to the area.

In the below images I've used photographs or video stills to mark the field of view onto the satellite map imagery.  I've then numbered each point in the map and photograph/still that's a match, and explained it in more detail below.  Click the image to see it full sized......
 
Individually, none of the images would be strong enough evidence to confirm the location of the munition, but having examined 5 images that appears to match the satellite map, without any noticeable differences from what we'd expect to see from those positions based off satellite map data, it seems like this location is a very strong match.

The munition itself appears to have buckled over on impact, which seems reasonable as the center section of the remaining warhead is a hollow metal tube.  This would seem to strongly indicate the munition was fired from the north, where 6-8km away you'll find a number of military installations, connected by a 2km road to the 155th Brigade missile base.  In one version of events, the Syrian National Coalition has claimed the rockets were launched from bases housing the 155th Brigade. "

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